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How Can U.S. Agriculture Prepare for an Aging and Peaking Global Population?
OMAHA, Neb., and SANTA ROSA, Calif. – In the not-so-distant future, the global population will peak. The impacts to food and agricultural demand will be felt sooner as populations trend older. “The Big Shrink,” a new multi-report series from Terrain, examines what these realities mean for the U.S. agricultural industry and what opportunities may arise.
Terrain is a team of ag economists and analysts who provide expert analysis and confident forecasting to the customers of AgCountry® Farm Credit Services, American AgCredit®, Farm Credit Services of America® and Frontier Farm Credit®. The team helps farmers and ranchers anticipate what may lie ahead, whether that’s three months or 30 years from now.
“Populations have already peaked in many of the U.S.’s major trade-partner countries,” explains John Newton, Ph.D., executive head of Terrain. “What will drive success for farmers and ranchers in just a few decades will likely look very different than what has worked for the last 30 years. Historically, success was defined by growing on-farm yield and productivity, knowing that the agricultural supply chain could export the ‘extra’ production to feed the world. While the need for on-farm efficiency won’t go away, the revenue streams and value drivers will likely change as populations around the world reach their peak. U.S. farmers and ranchers are the best in the world, and they can rise to this occasion.”
In Terrain’s projections, the global population will peak between 2065 and 2070 at 9.38 billion people. These figures are sooner and lower than the U.N.’s current “most likely scenario” projections — 2084 at 10.3 billion people — after its last set of downward revisions due to global fertility rates and population estimates. As explained in report No. 1 of “The Big Shrink,” “How Will Agriculture Navigate the Baby Bust?” the driving factor for Terrain’s projections is rapidly falling fertility rates around the world.
Report No. 2, “Best Trade Friends Forever?” analyzes the risk associated with the export portfolios for corn, sorghum, soybeans and wheat. This report outlines why investments to diversify and modernize exports over the next decade will be important for success in American agriculture.
Read the first two reports of “The Big Shrink” at TheBigShrink.terrainag.com. More reports will be added throughout 2025 to help the industry consider how a peaking population may impact demand for products such as tree nuts, animal protein and dairy; how agricultural policy may evolve to help farmers navigate these new challenges and opportunities; and more.
Media Contact: Heather Stettner, Engagement Leader, Terrain
About Terrain
Terrain provides its analysis of economic factors and trends and agricultural markets to the customers of AgCountry Farm Credit Services, American AgCredit, Farm Credit Services of America and Frontier Farm Credit. To view the information that Terrain has to offer, visit terrainag.com.
About AgCountry Farm Credit Services
Headquartered in Fargo, North Dakota, AgCountry Farm Credit Services (AgCountry) has assets in excess of $14 billion and over 700 employees. AgCountry is a member-owned, locally governed lending institution that provides credit and financial services to more than 25,000 farmers and ranchers in portions of Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin. Providing agribusiness loans and leases nationwide, AgCountry is a part of the Farm Credit System, a nationwide network of cooperative financial service institutions that serve agriculture and rural America. For more information: AgCountry.com.
About American AgCredit
American AgCredit was chartered in 1916 as part of the nationwide Farm Credit System and is the nation’s fourth-largest Farm Credit association. American AgCredit specializes in providing financial services to agricultural and rural customers in California, Colorado, Hawaii, Kansas, Nevada, New Mexico and Oklahoma, and serves capital market customers throughout the U.S. Learn more at agloan.com.
About Farm Credit Services of America
Farm Credit Services of America is a customer-owned financial cooperative proud to finance the growth of rural America, including the unique needs of young and beginning producers. With nearly $44.3 billion in assets and $7.9 billion in members’ equity, FCSAmerica is one of the region’s leading providers of credit and insurance services to farmers, ranchers, agribusinesses and rural residents in Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming. Learn more at fcsamerica.com.
About Frontier Farm Credit
Frontier Farm Credit operates in alliance with Farm Credit Services of America to provide credit and insurance services to agricultural and rural communities in eastern Kansas. The association has nearly $2.6 billion in assets and $547 million in members’ equity. Learn more at frontierfarmcredit.com.
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